How to Check a Tipster's Record
To check a tipster's record, look for a full list of every tip, posted before kick-off. Each tip needs a date, odds, stake and result, with no deletions. Then work out profit and ROI over many hundreds of tips, not the strike rate over a few.
Tipster record example: Asante Kotoko vs Hearts of Oak
Say a tipster posts "Asante Kotoko to win at 1.80 (example odds), 1 unit" on Friday. A unit is a set stake that stays the same, such as GH₵10.
A proper record entry for this tip looks like this:
| Date posted | Match | Pick | Odds | Stake | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, before kick-off | Asante Kotoko vs Hearts of Oak | Kotoko win | 1.80 | 1 unit (GH₵10) | Won, if it ends 2–1 | +GH₵8.00 |
| Fri, before kick-off | Asante Kotoko vs Hearts of Oak | Kotoko win | 1.80 | 1 unit (GH₵10) | Lost, if it ends 1–1 | −GH₵10.00 |
Only one of these rows would appear, depending on the result. A win at 1.80 returns GH₵10 × 1.80 = GH₵18, so the profit is GH₵8. Check returns with the payout calculator.
The key point is that the losing row must stay in the record. A record that shows only winners is not a record.
What a full record must show
A full record must show every tip the tipster gave, in date order. Each entry needs:
- The date and time, posted before kick-off.
- The match and the pick.
- The odds taken at the time of posting.
- The stake, in units or money.
- The result, won or lost.
- No deletions. Losing tips stay. Old tips are never changed.
If any of these are missing, you cannot work out real profit. Ask for them. An honest tipster will not mind.
Strike rate vs ROI
Strike rate is the share of tips that win. ROI (return on investment) is profit as a share of total money staked. A high strike rate can still lose money.
Here are two made-up tipsters. Each gives 20 tips at ₦1,000 each, so each stakes ₦20,000 in total.
| Tipster A | Tipster B | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds on every tip | 1.30 | 3.00 |
| Tips won | 14 of 20 | 8 of 20 |
| Strike rate | 70% | 40% |
| Total returned | ₦18,200 | ₦24,000 |
| Profit | −₦1,800 | +₦4,000 |
| ROI | −9% | +20% |
Tipster A wins more often but loses money. At 1.30, you must win more than 76.92% of tips just to break even (100 ÷ 1.30). Tipster B wins less often but made a profit in this short run.
So never judge a tipster by strike rate alone. Read our guide to ROI and yield for the full formula.
Why 20 tips prove little
Twenty tips prove little because luck has a big effect over a short run. Even Tipster B's +20% could be pure luck.
Here is a made-up case. A bettor picks bets at odds of 2.00. Each bet's real chance is only 48%, so they lose over time. Over 20 bets, they still have about a 1 in 5 chance of winning 12 or more. That is a 60% strike rate and a +20% ROI.
Over 500 bets, the same bettor almost never reaches a 60% strike rate. The longer record shows the truth.
So look for many hundreds of tips. Even then, stay careful. Most paid tip sellers do not beat the market over time.
Fake screenshots and edited records
Screenshots are easy to fake, and even real ones hide the losers. Do not trust a record made only of pictures.
Watch for these tricks:
- Edited slips. Odds, stakes and results can be changed with a phone app.
- Only winners shown. Losing slips are never posted.
- Deleted posts. Losing tips disappear from the channel later.
- Split tips. A seller sends different picks to different groups. One group always wins and becomes the advert.
- Tips posted after kick-off. A "tip" shared late can be chosen after the result is clear.
A record you can trust is public, dated and posted before each match. Screenshots are not proof.
Tipster checklist
Use this checklist before you follow or pay any tipster:
| Question | Good sign | Warning sign |
|---|---|---|
| Is every tip listed? | Full list, wins and losses | Only winners |
| Posted before kick-off? | Dated, timed posts | Posted after matches |
| Odds shown? | Exact odds for each tip | No odds, or odds added later |
| Stake shown? | Small, steady units | "Go big" or changing stakes |
| How many tips? | Many hundreds | 20 or 30 |
| Profit and ROI shown? | Worked out from the full list | Only strike rate |
| Any deletions? | None | Missing or edited tips |
| Language used | Careful, honest | Claims a tip cannot lose |
Common mistakes
- Judging a tipster by strike rate instead of profit.
- Trusting a few weeks of good results.
- Believing screenshots without a full record.
- Ignoring tips that were deleted or edited.
- Forgetting to subtract any fee you paid from your profit.
FAQ
What is a good strike rate for a tipster?
Strike rate alone cannot tell you. A tipster who wins 70% of tips at low odds can still lose money. Look at profit and ROI over many tips.
How many tips do I need to judge a tipster?
Many hundreds, not a few dozen. Twenty tips can look great or terrible by luck alone.
Can a winning screenshot be fake?
Yes. Screenshots are easy to edit, and one real winning slip says nothing about the losing ones. Ask for the full record instead.
What if a tipster deletes losing tips?
Then the record cannot be trusted. Treat any edited or missing record as a reason to walk away.