Not started
Brighton & Hove AlbionvsBrentford
11.67X4.4825.60
Our pickOver 2.5 goals1.6660% chance
60% chance by our model; expected score Brighton & Hove Albion 2.1–1.1 Brentford.
Football predictions, fair odds and results
12 matches from 4 leagues, each with our fair 1X2 odds, one pick and a full page explaining it. Every pick stays in the public history, wins and losses.
Sunday 8 November
Premier LeagueEngland
Not started
SunderlandvsChelsea
14.07X4.2721.92
Our pickChelsea, draw no bet1.4768% chance
68% chance by our model; expected score Sunderland 1.3–2.0 Chelsea.
Not started
Ipswich TownvsAFC Bournemouth
12.52X4.1522.76
Our pickBoth teams to score (GG)1.4768% chance
68% chance by our model; expected score Ipswich Town 1.8–1.7 AFC Bournemouth.
NPFLNigeria
Not started
Bendel InsurancevsNiger Tornadoes
12.32X3.2923.76
Our pickOver 1.5 goals1.5067% chance
67% chance by our model; expected score Bendel Insurance 1.3–1.0 Niger Tornadoes.
Not started
Rangers InternationalvsKwara United
11.81X3.8525.30
Our pickRangers International to win1.8155% chance
55% chance by our model; expected score Rangers International 1.7–0.9 Kwara United.
Not started
BarauvsShooting Stars
12.09X3.6024.09
Our pickBarau, draw no bet1.5166% chance
66% chance by our model; expected score Barau 1.5–1.0 Shooting Stars.
Kenyan Premier LeagueKenya
Not started
BandarivsTusker
13.42X2.8422.81
Our pickNot both teams to score (NG)1.5564% chance
64% chance by our model; expected score Bandari 0.8–0.9 Tusker.
Not started
Kakamega HomeboyzvsKenya Police
13.36X2.6223.12
Our pickNot both teams to score (NG)1.4270% chance
70% chance by our model; expected score Kakamega Homeboyz 0.7–0.8 Kenya Police.
Not started
Gor MahiavsNairobi United
11.75X3.9525.69
Our pickGor Mahia to win1.7557% chance
57% chance by our model; expected score Gor Mahia 1.7–0.9 Nairobi United.
Ghana Premier LeagueGhana
Not started
Medeama SCvsSwedru All Blacks
12.02X3.3824.79
Our pickOver 1.5 goals1.5365% chance
65% chance by our model; expected score Medeama SC 1.4–0.8 Swedru All Blacks.
Not started
Hearts of OakvsHeart of Lions
11.72X3.5027.45
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals1.4868% chance
68% chance by our model; expected score Hearts of Oak 1.4–0.6 Heart of Lions.
Not started
Bibiani Gold StarsvsAduana FC
13.53X2.7822.80
Our pickNot both teams to score (NG)1.5166% chance
66% chance by our model; expected score Bibiani Gold Stars 0.8–0.9 Aduana FC.
The numbers in the boxes are our fair odds: the price that matches the chance our model gives. A bet only has value if your bookmaker pays more than our fair odds. What is a value bet?
Results history
No pick has been settled yet. Results appear here after each match, wins and losses, and are never removed.
How our predictions work
Every pick comes from the same model, so you can check our reasoning instead of trusting a name.
- Team strength from the table. We take each club's goals scored and conceded per game from the current league table. Early in the season the numbers are pulled towards the league average, so one big win does not distort them.
- Expected goals for the match. Home attack × away defence × the league's goal average, times a home-advantage factor (and the reverse for the away side).
- Chance of every score. A Poisson model turns expected goals into the chance of 0–0, 1–0, 2–1 and so on, with a small correction for low scores. Adding scores gives 1X2, double chance, Over/Under and GG/NG.
- One pick. We choose the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45; goal markets need at least 58%, because one goal decides them. If every option is shorter, we take the most likely bet that still pays at least 1.30.
What the model does not know: injuries, suspensions, rotation, weather, motivation. Always check team news before you bet. Picks are published in advance and never edited.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.