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Kakamega HomeboyzvsKenya Police
13.36X2.6223.12
Our pickNot both teams to score (NG)1.4270% chance
Kakamega Homeboyz vs Kenya Police prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 8 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Not both teams to score (NG) at fair odds of 1.42: our model gives it a 70% chance. The model expects about 0.8–0.8. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 8 November, 15:00 EAT, Bukhungu Stadium, Kakamega.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Kakamega Homeboyz | Kenya Police |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16 | 7 |
| Points | 4 | 8 |
| Played | 4 | 5 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-2 | 2-2-1 |
| Scored per game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Conceded per game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
What the numbers say
- Kakamega Homeboyz are 16th of 18 with 4 points from 4 games; Kenya Police are 7th with 8 from 5.
- Kakamega Homeboyz score 0.5 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 1.0 (about average).
- Kenya Police score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.6 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Kakamega Homeboyz 0.75 and Kenya Police 0.79 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Kakamega Homeboyz first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 22% | 4.45 |
| 0–1 | 16% | 6.28 |
| 1–0 | 15% | 6.63 |
| 1–1 | 14% | 7.29 |
| 0–2 | 7% | 14.97 |
| 2–0 | 6% | 16.58 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kakamega Homeboyz win | 30% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.62 |
| Kenya Police win | 32% | 3.12 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kakamega Homeboyz or draw | 68% | 1.47 |
| Kenya Police or draw | 70% | 1.42 |
| Either team wins | 62% | 1.62 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 48% | 2.08 |
| Kenya Police | 52% | 1.93 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 4.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 14.18 |
| Under 3.5 | 93% | 1.08 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 30% | 3.36 |
| No (NG) our pick | 70% | 1.42 |
Why we picked Not both teams to score (NG)
Not both teams to score (NG) has a 70% chance in our model, a high level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 32%, Over 2.5 20%, Under 2.5 80%, GG 30%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if at least one team fails to score, for example 1–0 or 0–0. Loses at 1–1.
GG (both teams to score) wins if Kakamega Homeboyz and Kenya Police each score at least once. NG wins if at least one of them does not score. Full guide to GG/NG.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.42. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.56 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 156.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 56.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.