Not started
SunderlandvsChelsea
14.07X4.2721.92
Our pickChelsea, draw no bet1.4768% chance
Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction Premier League · Sun 8 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Chelsea, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.47: our model gives it a 68% chance. The model expects about 1.3–2.0. Premier League, round 10, Sunday 8 November, 14:00 GMT.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20 | 4 |
| Points | 5 | 16 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-6 | 5-1-3 |
| Scored per game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Conceded per game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 0.56 | 1.78 |
| Home / away record | 1-1-2 at home | 2-0-2 away |
What the numbers say
- Sunderland are 20th of 20 with 5 points from 9 games; Chelsea are 4th with 16 from 9.
- Sunderland score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.9 (more than average).
- Chelsea score 2.1 goals per game (above the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.7 (more than average).
- At home Sunderland are 1-1-2 (won-drawn-lost), 1 scored and 4 conceded.
- Away from home Chelsea are 2-0-2, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Sunderland 1.31 and Chelsea 1.97 goals. The league average is 1.34 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.14. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Sunderland first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 10% | 9.53 |
| 1–2 | 10% | 10.45 |
| 0–2 | 7% | 13.68 |
| 0–1 | 7% | 15.06 |
| 2–1 | 6% | 15.72 |
| 1–3 | 6% | 15.92 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 25% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 |
| Chelsea win | 52% | 1.92 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland or draw | 48% | 2.09 |
| Chelsea or draw | 75% | 1.33 |
| Either team wins | 77% | 1.31 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 32% | 3.12 |
| Chelsea our pick | 68% | 1.47 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 6.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 64% | 1.57 |
| No (NG) | 36% | 2.75 |
Why we picked Chelsea, draw no bet
Chelsea, draw no bet has a 68% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 52%, Over 2.5 64%, Under 2.5 36%, GG 64%, NG 36%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Chelsea win; stake back on a draw; loses if Sunderland win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.47. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.62 (example odds). A ₦1,000.00 stake returns ₦1,620.00 if it wins, a profit of ₦620.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
Other predictions for Sun 8 Nov
- Bandari vs Tusker · Kenyan Premier League
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford · Premier League
- Ipswich Town vs AFC Bournemouth · Premier League
- Medeama SC vs Swedru All Blacks · Ghana Premier League
- Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions · Ghana Premier League
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana FC · Ghana Premier League
- Kakamega Homeboyz vs Kenya Police · Kenyan Premier League
- Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes · NPFL
- Rangers International vs Kwara United · NPFL
- Barau vs Shooting Stars · NPFL
- Gor Mahia vs Nairobi United · Kenyan Premier League
Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.