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KCCA FCvsBUL FC
12.91X3.1722.93
Our pickKCCA FC or draw1.5266% chance
KCCA FC vs BUL FC prediction Uganda Premier League · Thu 26 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is KCCA FC or draw at fair odds of 1.52: our model gives it a 66% chance. The model expects about 1.1–1.1. Uganda Premier League, round 12, Thursday 26 November, 20:00 EAT, MTN Omondi Stadium, Lugogo.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 6 November 2026.
| Table | KCCA FC | BUL FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5 | 1 |
| Points | 19 | 23 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-2 | 7-2-0 |
| Scored per game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Conceded per game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Points per game | 2.11 | 2.56 |
What the numbers say
- KCCA FC are 5th of 18 with 19 points from 9 games; BUL FC are 1st with 23 from 9.
- KCCA FC score 1.3 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.7 (fewer than average).
- BUL FC score 2.0 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.7 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects KCCA FC 1.08 and BUL FC 1.08 goals. The league average is 1.15 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (KCCA FC first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 15% | 6.89 |
| 0–0 | 13% | 7.96 |
| 1–0 | 11% | 8.79 |
| 0–1 | 11% | 8.82 |
| 2–1 | 7% | 13.72 |
| 1–2 | 7% | 13.77 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| KCCA FC win | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.17 |
| BUL FC win | 34% | 2.93 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| KCCA FC or draw our pick | 66% | 1.52 |
| BUL FC or draw | 66% | 1.52 |
| Either team wins | 68% | 1.46 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| KCCA FC | 50% | 1.99 |
| BUL FC | 50% | 2.01 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 1.5 | 35% | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 5.77 |
| Under 3.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 45% | 2.23 |
| No (NG) | 55% | 1.81 |
Why we picked KCCA FC or draw
KCCA FC or draw has a 66% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 34%, Over 2.5 37%, Under 2.5 63%, GG 45%, NG 55%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if KCCA FC win or draw. Loses only if BUL FC win.
Double chance covers two of the three results at a lower price. 1X wins if KCCA FC win or draw; X2 wins if BUL FC win or draw. Full guide to double chance.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.52. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.67 (example odds). A USh 2,000.00 stake returns USh 3,340.00 if it wins, a profit of USh 1,340.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 6 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.