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ChelseavsLeeds United
12.19X3.6623.69
Our pickChelsea, draw no bet1.5963% chance
Chelsea vs Leeds United prediction Premier League · Sat 21 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Chelsea, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.59: our model gives it a 63% chance. The model expects about 1.5–1.1. Premier League, round 11, Saturday 21 November, 15:00 GMT.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Chelsea | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4 | 8 |
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| Played | 9 | 10 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Scored per game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Conceded per game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 1.40 |
| Home / away record | 3-1-1 at home | 1-2-2 away |
What the numbers say
- Chelsea are 4th of 20 with 16 points from 9 games; Leeds United are 8th with 14 from 10.
- Chelsea score 2.1 goals per game (above the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.7 (more than average).
- Leeds United score 1.0 goals per game (below the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 0.8 (fewer than average).
- At home Chelsea are 3-1-1 (won-drawn-lost), 13 scored and 8 conceded.
- Away from home Leeds United are 1-2-2, 3 scored and 5 conceded.
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Chelsea 1.54 and Leeds United 1.13 goals. The league average is 1.34 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.14. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Chelsea first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13% | 7.67 |
| 1–0 | 10% | 10.34 |
| 2–1 | 9% | 10.80 |
| 2–0 | 8% | 12.24 |
| 0–0 | 8% | 12.67 |
| 0–1 | 7% | 14.51 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 |
| Leeds United win | 27% | 3.69 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea or draw | 73% | 1.37 |
| Leeds United or draw | 54% | 1.84 |
| Either team wins | 73% | 1.38 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea our pick | 63% | 1.59 |
| Leeds United | 37% | 2.68 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 4.09 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 3.58 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 54% | 1.85 |
| No (NG) | 46% | 2.18 |
Why we picked Chelsea, draw no bet
Chelsea, draw no bet has a 63% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 46%, Over 2.5 50%, Under 2.5 50%, GG 54%, NG 46%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Chelsea win; stake back on a draw; loses if Leeds United win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.59. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.75 (example odds). A ₦1,000.00 stake returns ₦1,750.00 if it wins, a profit of ₦750.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.