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Newcastle UnitedvsArsenal
14.31X3.4422.09
Our pickOver 1.5 goals1.4669% chance
Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction Premier League · Sat 21 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at fair odds of 1.46: our model gives it a 69% chance. The model expects about 0.9–1.4. Premier League, round 11, Saturday 21 November, 17:30 GMT.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Newcastle United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11 | 1 |
| Points | 12 | 27 |
| Played | 10 | 10 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Scored per game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Conceded per game | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.70 |
| Home / away record | 1-2-2 at home | 4-0-1 away |
What the numbers say
- Newcastle United are 11th of 20 with 12 points from 10 games; Arsenal are 1st with 27 from 10.
- Newcastle United score 1.3 goals per game (close to the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.6 (more than average).
- Arsenal score 1.5 goals per game (above the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 0.5 (fewer than average).
- At home Newcastle United are 1-2-2 (won-drawn-lost), 6 scored and 7 conceded.
- Away from home Arsenal are 4-0-1, 5 scored and 3 conceded.
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Newcastle United 0.91 and Arsenal 1.42 goals. The league average is 1.34 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.14. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Newcastle United first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14% | 7.36 |
| 0–1 | 13% | 7.81 |
| 0–0 | 11% | 9.29 |
| 0–2 | 10% | 10.21 |
| 1–2 | 9% | 11.21 |
| 1–0 | 8% | 12.69 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United win | 23% | 4.31 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 |
| Arsenal win | 48% | 2.09 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United or draw | 52% | 1.91 |
| Arsenal or draw | 77% | 1.30 |
| Either team wins | 71% | 1.41 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 33% | 3.06 |
| Arsenal | 67% | 1.49 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 our pick | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 1.5 | 31% | 3.18 |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 4.85 |
| Under 3.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 46% | 2.16 |
| No (NG) | 54% | 1.86 |
Why we picked Over 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals has a 69% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 48%, Over 2.5 41%, Under 2.5 59%, GG 46%, NG 54%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins with 2 or more goals, for example 1–1 or 2–0.
Over 1.5 wins if the match has 2 or more goals, whoever scores them. Full guide to Over 1.5.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.46. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.61 (example odds). A ₦1,000.00 stake returns ₦1,610.00 if it wins, a profit of ₦610.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.