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AFC LeopardsvsAPS Bomet
12.67X2.2725.42
Our pickAFC Leopards, draw no bet1.4967% chance
AFC Leopards vs APS Bomet prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 15 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is AFC Leopards, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.49: our model gives it a 67% chance. The model expects about 0.7–0.4. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 15 November, Time TBC, Dandora Stadium, Nairobi.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | AFC Leopards | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3 | 11 |
| Points | 10 | 6 |
| Played | 6 | 6 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-0 | 1-3-2 |
| Scored per game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Conceded per game | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
What the numbers say
- AFC Leopards are 3rd of 18 with 10 points from 6 games; APS Bomet are 11th with 6 from 6.
- AFC Leopards score 0.7 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.2 (fewer than average).
- APS Bomet score 0.7 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.5 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects AFC Leopards 0.72 and APS Bomet 0.42 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (AFC Leopards first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 33% | 3.05 |
| 1–0 | 22% | 4.50 |
| 0–1 | 13% | 7.86 |
| 1–1 | 10% | 9.58 |
| 2–0 | 8% | 12.14 |
| 2–1 | 3% | 28.90 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards win | 38% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 44% | 2.27 |
| APS Bomet win | 18% | 5.42 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards or draw | 82% | 1.23 |
| APS Bomet or draw | 63% | 1.60 |
| Either team wins | 56% | 1.79 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards our pick | 67% | 1.49 |
| APS Bomet | 33% | 3.03 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 32% | 3.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 | 11% | 9.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 89% | 1.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 34.97 |
| Under 3.5 | 97% | 1.03 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 18% | 5.45 |
| No (NG) | 82% | 1.22 |
Why we picked AFC Leopards, draw no bet
AFC Leopards, draw no bet has a 67% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 38%, Over 2.5 11%, Under 2.5 89%, GG 18%, NG 82%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if AFC Leopards win; stake back on a draw; loses if APS Bomet win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.49. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.64 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 164.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 64.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.