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ShabanavsKenya Police
12.71X2.6224.00
Our pickShabana, draw no bet1.6860% chance
Shabana vs Kenya Police prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 15 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Shabana, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.68: our model gives it a 60% chance. The model expects about 0.9–0.7. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 15 November, Time TBC, Afraha Stadium.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Shabana | Kenya Police |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4 | 7 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| Played | 6 | 5 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Scored per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Conceded per game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
What the numbers say
- Shabana are 4th of 18 with 9 points from 6 games; Kenya Police are 7th with 8 from 5.
- Shabana score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.7 (fewer than average).
- Kenya Police score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.6 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Shabana 0.86 and Kenya Police 0.66 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Shabana first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 23% | 4.36 |
| 1–0 | 18% | 5.60 |
| 0–1 | 13% | 7.45 |
| 1–1 | 13% | 7.47 |
| 2–0 | 8% | 12.32 |
| 2–1 | 5% | 18.76 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shabana win | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.62 |
| Kenya Police win | 25% | 4.00 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shabana or draw | 75% | 1.33 |
| Kenya Police or draw | 63% | 1.58 |
| Either team wins | 62% | 1.62 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shabana our pick | 60% | 1.68 |
| Kenya Police | 40% | 2.47 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 1.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 5.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 14.73 |
| Under 3.5 | 93% | 1.07 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 29% | 3.47 |
| No (NG) | 71% | 1.40 |
Why we picked Shabana, draw no bet
Shabana, draw no bet has a 60% chance in our model, a modest level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 37%, Over 2.5 20%, Under 2.5 80%, GG 29%, NG 71%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Shabana win; stake back on a draw; loses if Kenya Police win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.68. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.85 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 185.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 85.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.