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Polisi TanzaniavsYoung Africans
14.09X3.4422.15
Our pickYoung Africans, draw no bet1.5366% chance
Polisi Tanzania vs Young Africans prediction NBC Premier League · Fri 20 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Young Africans, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.53: our model gives it a 66% chance. The model expects about 0.9–1.4. NBC Premier League, round 12, Friday 20 November, 16:00 EAT, Ushirika Stadium.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 3 November 2026.
| Table | Polisi Tanzania | Young Africans |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6 | 2 |
| Points | 15 | 25 |
| Played | 11 | 10 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Scored per game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Conceded per game | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Points per game | 1.36 | 2.50 |
| Home / away record | 3-2-1 at home | 2-1-1 away |
| Last five | LDDLW | WLDWW |
What the numbers say
- Polisi Tanzania are 6th of 16 with 15 points from 11 games; Young Africans are 2nd with 25 from 10.
- Polisi Tanzania score 1.2 goals per game (close to the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 1.1 (about average).
- Young Africans score 2.3 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.5 (fewer than average).
- At home Polisi Tanzania are 3-2-1 (won-drawn-lost), 8 scored and 4 conceded.
- Away from home Young Africans are 2-1-1, 6 scored and 3 conceded.
- Polisi Tanzania form, last five: LDDLW (1 win, 2 losses).
- Young Africans form, last five: WLDWW (3 wins, 1 loss).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Polisi Tanzania 0.95 and Young Africans 1.41 goals. The league average is 1.20 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.26. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Polisi Tanzania first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14% | 7.32 |
| 0–1 | 12% | 8.14 |
| 0–0 | 10% | 9.56 |
| 0–2 | 9% | 10.68 |
| 1–2 | 9% | 11.22 |
| 1–0 | 8% | 12.53 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania win | 24% | 4.09 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 |
| Young Africans win | 47% | 2.15 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania or draw | 53% | 1.87 |
| Young Africans or draw | 76% | 1.32 |
| Either team wins | 71% | 1.41 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 34% | 2.90 |
| Young Africans our pick | 66% | 1.53 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 1.5 | 31% | 3.26 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 4.70 |
| Under 3.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 47% | 2.11 |
| No (NG) | 53% | 1.90 |
Why we picked Young Africans, draw no bet
Young Africans, draw no bet has a 66% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 47%, Over 2.5 42%, Under 2.5 58%, GG 47%, NG 53%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Young Africans win; stake back on a draw; loses if Polisi Tanzania win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.53. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.68 (example odds). A TSh 1,000.00 stake returns TSh 1,680.00 if it wins, a profit of TSh 680.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 3 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.