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SC VillavsUPDF FC
11.52X3.96211.00
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals1.5166% chance
SC Villa vs UPDF FC prediction Uganda Premier League · Fri 20 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at fair odds of 1.51: our model gives it a 66% chance. The model expects about 1.6–0.4. Uganda Premier League, round 11, Friday 20 November, 16:00 EAT, Muteesa II Stadium, Wankulukuku.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 6 November 2026.
| Table | SC Villa | UPDF FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3 | 15 |
| Points | 21 | 8 |
| Played | 10 | 9 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-5 |
| Scored per game | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Conceded per game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 0.89 |
What the numbers say
- SC Villa are 3rd of 18 with 21 points from 10 games; UPDF FC are 15th with 8 from 9.
- SC Villa score 1.9 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.6 (fewer than average).
- UPDF FC score 0.4 goals per game (below the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.9 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects SC Villa 1.61 and UPDF FC 0.44 goals. The league average is 1.15 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (SC Villa first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 20% | 5.01 |
| 2–0 | 17% | 6.02 |
| 0–0 | 14% | 7.35 |
| 1–1 | 10% | 10.10 |
| 3–0 | 9% | 11.22 |
| 2–1 | 7% | 13.57 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| SC Villa win | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 |
| UPDF FC win | 9% | 11.00 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| SC Villa or draw | 91% | 1.10 |
| UPDF FC or draw | 34% | 2.91 |
| Either team wins | 75% | 1.34 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| SC Villa | 88% | 1.14 |
| UPDF FC | 12% | 8.22 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 1.5 | 39% | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 our pick | 66% | 1.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 6.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 29% | 3.41 |
| No (NG) | 71% | 1.42 |
Why we picked Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals has a 66% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 66%, Over 2.5 34%, GG 29%, NG 71%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins with 2 goals or fewer, for example 1–1 or 2–0. Loses at 2–1.
Under 2.5 wins if the match has 2 goals or fewer, whoever scores them. Under 3.5 allows up to 3 goals. Full guide to Under 2.5.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.51. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.66 (example odds). A USh 2,000.00 stake returns USh 3,320.00 if it wins, a profit of USh 1,320.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 6 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.