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Gor MahiavsMara Sugar
11.86X3.7025.19
Our pickGor Mahia to win1.8654% chance
Gor Mahia vs Mara Sugar prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 22 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Gor Mahia to win at fair odds of 1.86: our model gives it a 54% chance. The model expects about 1.6–0.9. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 22 November, Time TBC, Kenyatta Stadium, Machakos.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Gor Mahia | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2 | 5 |
| Points | 12 | 9 |
| Played | 5 | 6 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Scored per game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Conceded per game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
What the numbers say
- Gor Mahia are 2nd of 18 with 12 points from 5 games; Mara Sugar are 5th with 9 from 6.
- Gor Mahia score 1.6 goals per game (above the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.8 (fewer than average).
- Mara Sugar score 1.2 goals per game (above the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 1.2 (more than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Gor Mahia 1.59 and Mara Sugar 0.86 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Gor Mahia first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 13% | 7.78 |
| 1–1 | 13% | 7.84 |
| 2–0 | 11% | 9.13 |
| 0–0 | 10% | 10.38 |
| 2–1 | 9% | 10.67 |
| 0–1 | 6% | 15.41 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gor Mahia win our pick | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 |
| Mara Sugar win | 19% | 5.19 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gor Mahia or draw | 81% | 1.24 |
| Mara Sugar or draw | 46% | 2.16 |
| Either team wins | 73% | 1.37 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Gor Mahia | 74% | 1.36 |
| Mara Sugar | 26% | 3.79 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 3.45 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 4.34 |
| Under 3.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 47% | 2.14 |
| No (NG) | 53% | 1.88 |
Why we picked Gor Mahia to win
Gor Mahia to win has a 54% chance in our model, a modest level of confidence. For comparison: Over 2.5 44%, Under 2.5 56%, GG 47%, NG 53%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Gor Mahia win. Loses on a draw or an Mara Sugar win.
A 1X2 bet is on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. "1" is a Gor Mahia win, "X" a draw, "2" a Mara Sugar win. Full guide to 1X2.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.86. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 2.05 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 205.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 105.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.