Not started
Mathare UnitedvsAFC Leopards
14.05X2.3023.15
Our pickAFC Leopards, draw no bet1.7856% chance
Mathare United vs AFC Leopards prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 22 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is AFC Leopards, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.78: our model gives it a 56% chance. The model expects about 0.6–0.7. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 22 November, Time TBC, Dandora Stadium, Nairobi.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Mathare United | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12 | 3 |
| Points | 5 | 10 |
| Played | 5 | 6 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-2 | 2-4-0 |
| Scored per game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Conceded per game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.67 |
What the numbers say
- Mathare United are 12th of 18 with 5 points from 5 games; AFC Leopards are 3rd with 10 from 6.
- Mathare United score 0.6 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.8 (fewer than average).
- AFC Leopards score 0.7 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.2 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Mathare United 0.55 and AFC Leopards 0.66 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Mathare United first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 31% | 3.24 |
| 0–1 | 19% | 5.30 |
| 1–0 | 16% | 6.44 |
| 1–1 | 12% | 8.60 |
| 0–2 | 6% | 15.41 |
| 2–0 | 4% | 22.37 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mathare United win | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 44% | 2.30 |
| AFC Leopards win | 32% | 3.15 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mathare United or draw | 68% | 1.47 |
| AFC Leopards or draw | 75% | 1.33 |
| Either team wins | 56% | 1.77 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 44% | 2.29 |
| AFC Leopards our pick | 56% | 1.78 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 | 12% | 8.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 88% | 1.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 29.41 |
| Under 3.5 | 97% | 1.04 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 21% | 4.73 |
| No (NG) | 79% | 1.27 |
Why we picked AFC Leopards, draw no bet
AFC Leopards, draw no bet has a 56% chance in our model, a modest level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 32%, Over 2.5 12%, Under 2.5 88%, GG 21%, NG 79%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if AFC Leopards win; stake back on a draw; loses if Mathare United win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.78. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.96 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 196.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 96.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
Other predictions for Sun 22 Nov
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League
- Rangers International vs Shooting Stars · NPFL
- Express FC vs Vipers SC · Uganda Premier League
- Bechem United vs Asante Kotoko · Ghana Premier League
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Swedru All Blacks · Ghana Premier League
- Berekum Chelsea vs Young Apostles · Ghana Premier League
- Gor Mahia vs Mara Sugar · Kenyan Premier League
- Kenya Police vs Murang'a Seal · Kenyan Premier League
Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.