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Nottingham ForestvsChelsea
13.01X3.8022.47
Our pickChelsea or draw1.5067% chance
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction Premier League · Fri 27 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Chelsea or draw at fair odds of 1.50: our model gives it a 67% chance. The model expects about 1.4–1.6. Premier League, round 12, Friday 27 November, 20:00 GMT.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Nottingham Forest | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16 | 4 |
| Points | 9 | 16 |
| Played | 10 | 9 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-3 |
| Scored per game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Conceded per game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Points per game | 0.90 | 1.78 |
| Home / away record | 1-1-3 at home | 2-0-2 away |
What the numbers say
- Nottingham Forest are 16th of 20 with 9 points from 10 games; Chelsea are 4th with 16 from 9.
- Nottingham Forest score 0.9 goals per game (below the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.3 (about average).
- Chelsea score 2.1 goals per game (above the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.7 (more than average).
- At home Nottingham Forest are 1-1-3 (won-drawn-lost), 3 scored and 4 conceded.
- Away from home Chelsea are 2-0-2, 6 scored and 7 conceded.
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Nottingham Forest 1.39 and Chelsea 1.55 goals. The league average is 1.34 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.14. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Nottingham Forest first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12% | 8.14 |
| 1–2 | 9% | 11.33 |
| 2–1 | 8% | 12.64 |
| 0–1 | 7% | 13.74 |
| 1–0 | 6% | 15.58 |
| 0–2 | 6% | 15.75 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
| Chelsea win | 40% | 2.47 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest or draw | 60% | 1.68 |
| Chelsea or draw our pick | 67% | 1.50 |
| Either team wins | 74% | 1.36 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 45% | 2.22 |
| Chelsea | 55% | 1.82 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 5.03 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 60% | 1.66 |
| No (NG) | 40% | 2.51 |
Why we picked Chelsea or draw
Chelsea or draw has a 67% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 40%, Over 2.5 56%, Under 2.5 44%, GG 60%, NG 40%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Chelsea win or draw. Loses only if Nottingham Forest win.
Double chance covers two of the three results at a lower price. 1X wins if Nottingham Forest win or draw; X2 wins if Chelsea win or draw. Full guide to double chance.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.50. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.65 (example odds). A ₦1,000.00 stake returns ₦1,650.00 if it wins, a profit of ₦650.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.