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Kruger UnitedvsMamelodi Sundowns
16.85X4.6921.56
Our pickMamelodi Sundowns to win1.5664% chance
Kruger United vs Mamelodi Sundowns prediction PSL · Sat 28 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Mamelodi Sundowns to win at fair odds of 1.56: our model gives it a 64% chance. The model expects about 0.9–2.1. PSL, Saturday 28 November, 20:15 SAST, Mbombela Stadium.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 31 October 2026.
| Table | Kruger United | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9 | 1 |
| Points | 10 | 26 |
| Played | 9 | 10 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Scored per game | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Conceded per game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Points per game | 1.11 | 2.60 |
What the numbers say
- Kruger United are 9th of 16 with 10 points from 9 games; Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st with 26 from 10.
- Kruger United score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 1.4 (more than average).
- Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.7 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.9 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Kruger United 0.92 and Mamelodi Sundowns 2.11 goals. The league average is 1.16 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Kruger United first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2 | 11% | 9.30 |
| 1–1 | 10% | 9.89 |
| 1–2 | 10% | 10.11 |
| 0–1 | 9% | 10.60 |
| 0–3 | 8% | 13.19 |
| 1–3 | 7% | 14.35 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kruger United win | 15% | 6.85 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns win our pick | 64% | 1.56 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kruger United or draw | 36% | 2.78 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns or draw | 85% | 1.17 |
| Either team wins | 79% | 1.27 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kruger United | 19% | 5.39 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 81% | 1.23 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 5.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 54% | 1.86 |
| No (NG) | 46% | 2.16 |
Why we picked Mamelodi Sundowns to win
Mamelodi Sundowns to win has a 64% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: Over 2.5 58%, Under 2.5 42%, GG 54%, NG 46%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Mamelodi Sundowns win. Loses on a draw or a Kruger United win.
A 1X2 bet is on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. "1" is a Kruger United win, "X" a draw, "2" a Mamelodi Sundowns win. Full guide to 1X2.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.56. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.72 (example odds). A R20.00 stake returns R34.40 if it wins, a profit of R14.40. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 31 October 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.