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Orlando PiratesvsGolden Arrows
11.50X3.77215.08
Our pickOrlando Pirates to win1.5067% chance
Orlando Pirates vs Golden Arrows prediction PSL · Sat 28 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Orlando Pirates to win at fair odds of 1.50: our model gives it a 67% chance. The model expects about 1.5–0.3. PSL, Saturday 28 November, 18:00 SAST, Orlando Amstel Arena.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 31 October 2026.
| Table | Orlando Pirates | Golden Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2 | 10 |
| Points | 25 | 8 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-0 | 1-5-3 |
| Scored per game | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Conceded per game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Points per game | 2.78 | 0.89 |
What the numbers say
- Orlando Pirates are 2nd of 16 with 25 points from 9 games; Golden Arrows are 10th with 8 from 9.
- Orlando Pirates score 2.3 goals per game (above the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.2 (fewer than average).
- Golden Arrows score 0.3 goals per game (below the league average of 1.2 per team) and concede 0.6 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Orlando Pirates 1.47 and Golden Arrows 0.30 goals. The league average is 1.16 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Orlando Pirates first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 24% | 4.08 |
| 2–0 | 18% | 5.42 |
| 0–0 | 18% | 5.68 |
| 3–0 | 9% | 11.04 |
| 1–1 | 8% | 12.39 |
| 2–1 | 6% | 18.18 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates win our pick | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 |
| Golden Arrows win | 7% | 15.08 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates or draw | 93% | 1.07 |
| Golden Arrows or draw | 33% | 3.01 |
| Either team wins | 73% | 1.36 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates | 91% | 1.10 |
| Golden Arrows | 9% | 11.07 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 1.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 9.62 |
| Under 3.5 | 90% | 1.12 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 20% | 4.89 |
| No (NG) | 80% | 1.26 |
Why we picked Orlando Pirates to win
Orlando Pirates to win has a 67% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: Over 2.5 26%, Under 2.5 74%, GG 20%, NG 80%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Orlando Pirates win. Loses on a draw or an Golden Arrows win.
A 1X2 bet is on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. "1" is a Orlando Pirates win, "X" a draw, "2" a Golden Arrows win. Full guide to 1X2.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.50. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.65 (example odds). A R20.00 stake returns R33.00 if it wins, a profit of R13.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 31 October 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.