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Brighton & Hove AlbionvsNewcastle United
11.32X6.54211.40
Our pickBrighton & Hove Albion to win1.3276% chance
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction Premier League · Sun 29 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Brighton & Hove Albion to win at fair odds of 1.32: our model gives it a 76% chance. The model expects about 2.7–0.9. Premier League, round 12, Sunday 29 November, 14:05 GMT.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Brighton & Hove Albion | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3 | 11 |
| Points | 19 | 12 |
| Played | 9 | 10 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Scored per game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Conceded per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 2.11 | 1.20 |
| Home / away record | 3-1-0 at home | 2-1-2 away |
What the numbers say
- Brighton & Hove Albion are 3rd of 20 with 19 points from 9 games; Newcastle United are 11th with 12 from 10.
- Brighton & Hove Albion score 2.7 goals per game (above the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 0.8 (fewer than average).
- Newcastle United score 1.3 goals per game (close to the league average of 1.3 per team) and concede 1.6 (more than average).
- At home Brighton & Hove Albion are 3-1-0 (won-drawn-lost), 13 scored and 1 conceded.
- Away from home Newcastle United are 2-1-2, 7 scored and 9 conceded.
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Brighton & Hove Albion 2.73 and Newcastle United 0.86 goals. The league average is 1.34 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.14. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Brighton & Hove Albion first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 10% | 9.75 |
| 3–0 | 9% | 10.73 |
| 2–1 | 9% | 11.29 |
| 3–1 | 8% | 12.42 |
| 1–1 | 7% | 14.25 |
| 1–0 | 7% | 14.27 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion win our pick | 76% | 1.32 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.54 |
| Newcastle United win | 9% | 11.40 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion or draw | 91% | 1.10 |
| Newcastle United or draw | 24% | 4.16 |
| Either team wins | 85% | 1.18 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 90% | 1.12 |
| Newcastle United | 10% | 9.65 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 8.23 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 55% | 1.83 |
| No (NG) | 45% | 2.20 |
Why we picked Brighton & Hove Albion to win
Brighton & Hove Albion to win has a 76% chance in our model, a high level of confidence. For comparison: Over 2.5 70%, Under 2.5 30%, GG 55%, NG 45%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Brighton & Hove Albion win. Loses on a draw or an Newcastle United win.
A 1X2 bet is on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. "1" is a Brighton & Hove Albion win, "X" a draw, "2" a Newcastle United win. Full guide to 1X2.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.32. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.45 (example odds). A ₦1,000.00 stake returns ₦1,450.00 if it wins, a profit of ₦450.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.