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TuskervsKenya Police
12.16X3.1824.47
Our pickTusker, draw no bet1.4867% chance
Tusker vs Kenya Police prediction Kenyan Premier League · Sun 29 Nov
Short answer
Our pick is Tusker, draw no bet at fair odds of 1.48: our model gives it a 67% chance. The model expects about 1.3–0.8. Kenyan Premier League, Sunday 29 November, Time TBC, Kenyatta Stadium, Machakos.
Form and table
Table after matches up to 7 November 2026.
| Table | Tusker | Kenya Police |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9 | 7 |
| Points | 6 | 8 |
| Played | 3 | 5 |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Scored per game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Conceded per game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
What the numbers say
- Tusker are 9th of 18 with 6 points from 3 games; Kenya Police are 7th with 8 from 5.
- Tusker score 2.0 goals per game (above the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 1.0 (about average).
- Kenya Police score 0.8 goals per game (below the league average of 1.0 per team) and concede 0.6 (fewer than average).
Expected goals and likely scores
Our model expects Tusker 1.25 and Kenya Police 0.79 goals. The league average is 0.99 goals per team per game, and the home factor is 1.15. These are the six most likely scores:
| Score (Tusker first) | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 15% | 6.56 |
| 0–0 | 14% | 7.13 |
| 1–1 | 14% | 7.22 |
| 2–0 | 10% | 9.81 |
| 0–1 | 9% | 10.85 |
| 2–1 | 8% | 12.45 |
Even the most likely score usually has a chance well below 20%, which is why correct score bets pay so much and lose so often.
Chances for every main market
Chance from our model and the fair odds that match it. Your bookmaker's price includes a margin, so it is usually lower.
Full-time result (1X2)
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tusker win | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 |
| Kenya Police win | 22% | 4.47 |
Double chance
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tusker or draw | 78% | 1.29 |
| Kenya Police or draw | 54% | 1.86 |
| Either team wins | 69% | 1.46 |
Draw no bet
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tusker our pick | 67% | 1.48 |
| Kenya Police | 33% | 3.07 |
Total goals
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 1.63 |
| Under 1.5 | 38% | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 6.65 |
| Under 3.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
Both teams to score
| Bet | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes (GG) | 40% | 2.50 |
| No (NG) | 60% | 1.67 |
Why we picked Tusker, draw no bet
Tusker, draw no bet has a 67% chance in our model, a medium level of confidence. For comparison: 1X2 favourite 46%, Over 2.5 33%, Under 2.5 67%, GG 40%, NG 60%. We pick the most likely simple bet whose fair odds are at least 1.45 (or, when every option is shorter, at least 1.30), so the bet is worth placing.
How this bet is settled: Wins if Tusker win; stake back on a draw; loses if Kenya Police win.
Draw no bet removes the draw: if the match ends level, you get your stake back. Full guide to draw no bet.
Is the bookmaker's price worth taking?
Compare your bookmaker's odds with our fair odds of 1.48. If they offer more, the bet has value by our numbers; if they offer less, skip it or wait.
Example: your bookmaker offers 1.63 (example odds). A KSh 100.00 stake returns KSh 163.00 if it wins, a profit of KSh 63.00. Work out your own slip with the payout calculator. How to turn odds into a chance.
Check before you bet
- Team news and line-ups, about an hour before kick-off. The model does not know about injuries: how team news moves odds.
- Whether either side played midweek or has a cup or CAF match soon (rotation).
- Odds movement since this page was published: why odds change.
- Do not add this pick to a long accumulator just to raise the price: how accumulators multiply risk.
Bet responsibly. Only stake money you can afford to lose. Set a deposit limit in your bookmaker account before you start. If betting stops being fun, read where to get help.
- Kenyan Premier League: table and guide
- Tusker stats and betting guide
- Kenya Police stats and betting guide
- How our predictions work
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Pick made on 8 November 2026 from the table after matches up to 7 November 2026. Picks are never edited after publication.